Jacksonville Jaguars

Nick Mullens Completions

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Nick Mullens has gone over 1.5 CMP in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Southern Miss
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 1.5 CMP · our line

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OutNick Mullens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mullens was elevated for the Jaguars' Week 1 win over the Browns last Sunday. The quarterback took seven offensive snaps for the team in the fourth quarter, once the game was all but over. The 31-year-old veteran is set to play the backup role to Trevor Lawrence again and should only enter the game if Lawrence goes down or the team gets to garbage time.

Verdict

vs 1.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency44neutral

Projection

1.5 CMP(×0.96 context)

L5 1.5 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.2 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
1.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CMP per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ DEN

Sep 20, 2026

27thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

DEN allows 15.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Nick Mullens has gone over 1.5 CMP 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most CMP of 32 teams (15.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.