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Kansas City ChiefsNoah Gray Targets
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Noah Gray has gone over 3.5 TGT in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNoah Gray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gray's NFL career to this point has been spent in the shadow of Travis Kelce, and that was the case again in KC's season opener as Kelce led the team with 71 receiving yards while drawing five targets. Gray did log 38 of 69 offensive snaps and contributed 15 special-teams snaps as well, so he has an important role for Kansas City. However, he doesn't figure to put up consistent offensive numbers as long as Kelce is healthy.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency49neutral
Projection
3.8 TGT(×0.95 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 4.0 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 3.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs IND
Sep 21, 2026
21stof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
IND allows 2.7 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Noah Gray has gone over 3.5 TGT 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. IND has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 21st-most TGT of 32 teams (2.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Noah Gray research
Noah Gray — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gray Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Gray Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Gray Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.