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Atlanta FalconsOlamide Zaccheaus Receptions
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Olamide Zaccheaus has gone over 2.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Virginia
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 2.9 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOlamide Zaccheaus isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After stints in Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago, Zaccheaus opted to sign a one-year contract in March to rejoin the Falcons, with whom he previously played from 2019-22. The Virginia product has eclipsed 500 receiving yards just once in his NFL career, but given Atlanta's lack of reliable pass catchers behind London and tight end Kyle Pitts, Zaccheaus could establish himself as a consistent target for whoever is under center between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix (knee). Dotson brings four years of NFL experience to the table and little more production than Zaccheaus, but the journeyman's biggest competition figures to come from the rookie Branch, who made a strong impression on coaches with his speed, explosiveness and playmaking ability during college and in OTAs.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.1 REC(×0.90 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 2.9 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2013 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Season13 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 2.5Current | 38% | 5/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%4/12Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tua Tagovailoa out+0.2 REC when he sits
Without (8g)
3.0 REC
50% over 2.5
With (5g)
2.8 REC
20% over 2.5
Bijan Robinson out-1.7 REC when he sits
Without (6g)
2.0 REC
17% over 2.5
With (7g)
3.7 REC
57% over 2.5
Last matchup — vs GB
Dec 21, 2025
14thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 3.4 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Olamide Zaccheaus has gone over 2.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 38% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC of 32 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Olamide Zaccheaus research
Olamide Zaccheaus — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Zaccheaus Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Zaccheaus Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Zaccheaus Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.