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Miami DolphinsOllie Gordon II
#0 · RB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 80.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOllie Gordon II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
For the first time since De'Von Achane (knee) went down in Week 3 and Gordon became Miami's lead back, the second-year player was held out of the end zone. Over the last four games, Gordon has amassed 360 rushing yards and three TDs on 71 totes (5.1 yards per carry), but he's added exactly zero receiving yards to his totals. Gordon will try to begin a new TD streak in Week 9 against the Lions.
Verdict
vs 87.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 32% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency52neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
73.5 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 80.2 · L10 80.2 · med 88.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 63.4 · ceil 100.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 87.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 87.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs DET
Nov 8, 2026
23rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DET allows 39.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ollie Gordon II has gone over 87.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (39.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.