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Denver BroncosPat Bryant Targets
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Pat Bryant has gone over 4.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Illinois
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPat Bryant isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Sprain
- Est. return:
- Nov 8, 2026
Though Bryant, who was designated to return from IR on Wednesday, is officially listed as questionable ahead of Week 9 action, he practiced fully all week and is thus slated to be activated no later than Saturday, at which point his injury designation could be removed. If he is indeed in uniform this weekend, he'll have an opportunity to reclaim a key role in a Denver WR corps that has thus far been led by Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency41neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
5.2 TGT(×1.14 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 4.9 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 4.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 8% | 1/12 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ CAR
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
CAR allows 5.7 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 24 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Pat Bryant has gone over 4.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.7 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.
More Pat Bryant research
Pat Bryant — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Bryant Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Bryant Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Bryant Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.