Dallas Cowboys

Phil Mafah Carries

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Phil Mafah has gone over 4.5 CAR in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 5.0 CAR · our line

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OutPhil Mafah isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mafah, Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue will battle for the top backup spot throughout training camp. The Cowboys drafted Mafah in the seventh round in 2025, two rounds after selecting Blue. Mafah made his NFL debut in Week 18 of the 2025 campaign against the Giants and scored a touchdown on one of his five carries.

Verdict

vs 4.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

5.0 CAR

L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 5.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
4.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — CAR per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ NYG

Jan 4, 2026

18thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

NYG allows 11.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Phil Mafah has gone over 4.5 CAR 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most CAR of 32 teams (11.1 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.