Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: TCU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutQuentin Johnston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Johnston said McDaniel's scheme will put him "in the right position to be successful," noting that much of his collegiate success at TCU came after the catch. The 2023 first-round pick, who had his fifth-year option exercised in April, also said he's enjoyed working closely with his new offensive coordinator. Johnston managed a 51-735-8 line on 84 targets while suiting up for 14 regular-season games last year and could take a step forward in 2026 under McDaniel's scheme, with Keenan Allen still unsigned and freeing up 122 targets, and Los Angeles' offensive line set to return to health. Johnston, Ladd McConkey (hamstring) and Tre' Harris headline Justin Herbert's receiving corps, while tight ends Oronde Gadsden, David Njoku and Charlie Kolar will also figure into the passing game.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×0.94 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	55%	6/11
	9%	1/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away80%4/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Omarion Hampton out

Without (3g)

0.7 REC TD

67% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.6 REC TD

50% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 12, 2026

16thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Quentin Johnston has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.