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Seattle SeahawksRashid Shaheed Receptions
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Rashid Shaheed has gone over 3.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Weber State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRashid Shaheed isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Shaheed remained a big-play and return-game weapon after joining Seattle midseason in 2025, but his receiving role was limited as he adjusted on the fly to a new team and offense. That should change now that he's had an offseason to build familiarity with new OC Brian Fleury and improve his timing with with Darnold, giving him a clearer path to downfield targets alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Shaheed's week-to-week fantasy value may remain volatile, but he will boast a higher ceiling if Seattle follows through on finding more ways to get him the ball.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
2.9 REC(×0.90 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 3.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Season15 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 87% | 13/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 3.5Current | 73% | 11/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%10/14Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Sam Darnold out+2.1 REC when he sits
Without (4g)
5.5 REC
100% over 3.5
With (11g)
3.4 REC
64% over 3.5
Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery+0.4 REC when he sits
Without (7g)
4.1 REC
71% over 3.5
With (8g)
3.8 REC
75% over 3.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Feb 8, 2026
27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rashid Shaheed has gone over 3.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 73% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.
More Rashid Shaheed research
Rashid Shaheed — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Shaheed Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Shaheed Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Shaheed Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.