Pittsburgh Steelers

Rico Dowdle Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rico Dowdle has gone over 3.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.3 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Rico Dowdle's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Toe Not Specified

After exiting midway through the second quarter due to the toe injury, Dowdle was cleared to return coming out of halftime and picked up four touches (three carries, one catch) over the Steelers' first three possessions of the second half. However, he may have aggravated the injury at some point along the way and will now be shut down for the rest of the day. Jaylen Warren is expected to see the bulk of the snaps and touches out of the backfield for the remainder of the Week 2 contest, with Travis Homer and Eli Heidenreich providing depth behind him.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 5/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency8argues against it

Projection

2.8 TGT(×0.83 context)

L5 4.0 · L10 3.7 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	16/16
	81%	13/16
	56%	9/16
3.5Current	44%	7/16
	31%	5/16
	13%	2/16
	6%	1/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CIN allows 4.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rico Dowdle has gone over 3.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.