Indianapolis Colts

Riley Leonard Completions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Riley Leonard has gone over 19.5 CMP in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 19.5 CMP · our line

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OutRiley Leonard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Leonard continues to split reps with Anthony Richardson with the Colts' second-team offense as training camp gets underway. The second-year pro was impressive in his only start last season, completing 21 of 34 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing an interception in the Colts' 38-30 loss to the Texans in Week 18. Leonard and Richardson are both expected to be members of the Colts' initial 53-man roster in 2026.

Verdict

vs 19.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency87supports it

Projection

19.6 CMP

L5 19.5 · L10 19.5 · med 19.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 18.6 · ceil 20.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
19.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CMP per game vs. line 19.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

24thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

HOU allows 18.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Riley Leonard has gone over 19.5 CMP 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most CMP of 32 teams (18.5 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.