Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Targets

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

RJ Harvey has gone over 4.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UCF
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our line

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OutRJ Harvey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Harvey flashed playmaking ability as a rookie but struggled with consistency, finishing with under 200 total touches even with J.K. Dobbins missing the Broncos' final seven regular-season games. Denver's decision to re-sign Dobbins and draft Jonah Coleman in the fourth round points toward another committee, but Harvey could carve out more passing-game work if he's able to prove greater comfort in coach Sean Payton's system. Patra highlights Harvey as a candidate to earn a potential Joker-type role in Year 2, which would provide intriguing PPR upside even if the Broncos' crowded backfield may cap his ultimate upside.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency43neutral

Projection

4.5 TGT(×0.90 context)

L5 5.4 · L10 4.6 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.8 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Season10 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	90%	9/10
	80%	8/10
4.5Current	60%	6/10
	40%	4/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs NE

Jan 25, 2026

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

NE allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, RJ Harvey has gone over 4.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. NE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.