Pittsburgh Steelers

Robert Tonyan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Robert Tonyan has gone over 1.5 FS in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.1 FS · our line

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OutRobert Tonyan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Coming off the heels of a season in which he suited up for 17 games with Kansas City, Tonyan is now joining his fifth different team in as many years. Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are returning at tight end for the Steelers, but they released veteran Jonnu Smith back in March, so there's room for Tonyan to potentially snag a spot on the 53-man roster for 2026.

Verdict

vs 1.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.1 FS

L5 1.1 · L10 1.1 · med 1.1

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.1 · ceil 1.1

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
1.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — FS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Last matchup — @ DEN

Nov 16, 2025

13thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

DEN allows 6.7 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Robert Tonyan has gone over 1.5 FS 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (6.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.