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New England PatriotsRomeo Doubs
#87 · WR · 6' 2" · 210 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Nevada
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 61.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRomeo Doubs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Doubs accounted for 96 of Drake Maye's 202 passing yards while no teammate exceeded 40 receiving yards in the absence of A.J. Brown (ankle). Most of Doubs' production came on a 63-yard catch in the third quarter, which set up a field goal. This was a nice bounce-back performance from the offseason free-agent signing after Doubs finished without a catch in his Patriots debut. Maye has a 1:4 TD:INT, so New England's passing game has been sputtering ahead of a Week 3 trip to Jacksonville.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
66.8 REC YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 75.4 · L10 64.4 · med 63.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 34.4 · ceil 88.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2013 games
77%over
10 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–92%Season13 games
77%over
10 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–92%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 43.5Current | 77% | 10/13 | |
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away86%6/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%9/12Medium
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 53.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Romeo Doubs has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 77% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (53.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 36.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
BetRivers-112
-5.0% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+23.9%
Our model puts the over at 74.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (36.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 77%.