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New Orleans SaintsSpencer Rattler
#2 · QB · 6' 0" · 211 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 198.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSpencer Rattler isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Rattler lost the 2025 starting job to rookie first-round pick Tyler Shough halfway through the Saints' Week 8 loss to the Buccaneers. The quarterback remained in a reserve role for the team and is clearly liked by the organization, but the signing of three-year Jets starter Zach Wilson leaves Rattler's role up in the air. There is always the possibility the team retains three quarterbacks on the active roster (as they did in 2025), but only one will be the No. 2 option.
Verdict
vs 215.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 22% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line22argues against it
Consistency67supports it
Projection
174.2 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 189.4 · L10 198.3 · med 216.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 164.4 · ceil 226.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 215.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 215.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — vs TB
Oct 26, 2025
8thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TB allows 240.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Spencer Rattler has gone over 215.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 8th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (240.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 39.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.