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Minnesota VikingsT.J. Hockenson
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 248 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 32.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutT.J. Hockenson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hockenson played 69.2 percent of the Vikings' offensive snaps and ran 19 routes to Josh Oliver's four on Carson Wentz's 24 dropbacks. While both tight ends are playing significant snaps for Minnesota, it's clear that Hockenson is the receiving tight end while Oliver focuses on blocking as a traditional in-line player. Through two games, Hockenson has seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He'll be in the low-end TE1 conversation most weeks and gets Kyler Murray (concussion) back under center for next Sunday's game against the Bucs.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
32.7 REC YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 40.4 · L10 34.0 · med 32.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.4 · ceil 44.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 35.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%8/14Low
Next matchup — @ TB
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TB allows 34.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, T.J. Hockenson has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (34.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 24.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.3%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.0%
Our model puts the over at 45.7% vs the market's no-vig 49.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (24.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.