Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ted Hurst III Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ted Hurst III has gone over 2.5 REC in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia State
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.0 REC · our line

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OutTed Hurst III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With Jalen McMillan (knee) inactive, Hurst played 75 percent of the offensive snaps against Cincinnati and ran 30 routes on Baker Mayfield's 36 dropbacks. Hurst's three targets were fifth on the team. McMillan's injury isn't expected to keep him out long, so Hurst will be competing for playing time once everyone is healthy. Hurst is merely someone to watch on the waiver wire in normal-sized redraft fantasy leagues.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

3.2 REC(×1.08 context)

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
2.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs CLE

Sep 20, 2026

21stof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

CLE allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Ted Hurst III has gone over 2.5 REC 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 21st-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.