Loading…
New England PatriotsTerrell Jennings
#26 · RB · 6' 0" · 222 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Nov 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida A&M
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 19.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerrell Jennings isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jennings passed his physical and was able to return to practice Monday. The running back is competing with Lan Larison, Jam Miller and Myles Montgomery for the No. 3 running back role behind starters Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. A 2024 undrafted free agent out of Florida A&M, Jennings produced 23 rushes for 73 yards and one touchdown over seven regular-season games in 2025.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
18.7 RUSH YDS
L5 19.3 · L10 19.3 · med 18.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.2 · ceil 28.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 17.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ TB
Nov 9, 2025
23rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 45.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Terrell Jennings has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (45.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.