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Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 49.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTravis Kelce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"He looked pretty good," head coach Andy Reid said of Kelce. "He stayed in shape." Kelce had an eventful offseason ahead of his 14th NFL seasons, as he married Taylor Swift on July 3. The 36-year-old tight end recorded at least 823 regular-season receiving yards in each of the previous 12 campaigns.
Verdict
vs 47.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency9argues against it
Projection
34.0 REC YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 26.4 · L10 47.6 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.0 · ceil 70.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 47.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kenneth Walker III out-8.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
47.3 REC YDS
45% over 47.5
With (5g)
55.4 REC YDS
60% over 47.5
Last matchup — @ LV
Jan 4, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LV allows 24.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Travis Kelce has gone over 47.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (24.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.