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Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 57.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTravis Kelce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Patrick Mahomes was in vintage form Sunday night, and Kelce unsurprisingly was a big reason why. The legendary duo was in sync throughout the night, and it helped Kelce to team-high figures in receptions, receiving yards and targets. The veteran tight end has posted a combined 12-172-1 line on 16 targets over his first two games, making him a top option at his position in all formats as a tantalizing Week 3 road matchup against the Dolphins approaches next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 60.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
68.5 REC YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 58.0 · L10 54.3 · med 55.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.0 · ceil 78.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 60.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 60.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 56.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Travis Kelce has gone over 60.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (56.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 41.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-5.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+14.7%
Our model puts the over at 64.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (41.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.