Las Vegas Raiders

Tre Tucker Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tre Tucker has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutTre Tucker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Edwards, there's also been speculation that Las Vegas will consider adding a veteran free agent in the coming weeks, but as things stand, Tucker, who caught 57 passes (on 92 targets) for 696 yards and five TDs in 17 regular-season games in 2025, is in line to serve as a key target for QBs Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza. In that context, the 2023 third-rounder should continue to see enough volume to merit lineup consideration in deeper formats, while his fantasy upside in 2026 is linked to the possibility of improvements in the Raiders' passing game, with both a new head coach (Klint Kubiak) and new starting signal-callers on board.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 89% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line89supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.98 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2012 games

17%over

2 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–45%

Season12 games

17%over

2 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–45%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	17%	2/12
	8%	1/12
	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days18%2/11Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kirk Cousins out-0.5 REC TD when he sits

Without (7g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

With (5g)

0.6 REC TD

20% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs KC

Jan 4, 2026

30thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tre Tucker has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 17% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.