Arizona Cardinals

Trey Benson Targets

Stats updated: Sep 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Trey Benson has gone over 4.5 TGT in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.0 TGT · our line

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OutTrey Benson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Benson wasn't able to play after Week 4 last season due to a knee injury, finishing with 29 carries for 160 yards, 13 catches (on 16 targets) for 64 yards and no touchdowns in four contests. LaFleur noted that the team doesn't expect the current issue to be a long-term concern, and there's a chance Benson will play in Thursday's Hall of Fame Game against the Panthers, per Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic. With James Conner (foot) still not operating at 100 percent in training camp, Bam Knight, Corey Kiner and Evan Hull are the reserve RBs behind the top duo of rookie first-round pick Jeremiyah Love and offseason signing Tyler Allgeier.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line39argues against it

Consistency22argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

4.0 TGT(×0.96 context)

L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.8 · ceil 5.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
4.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Aug 7, 2026

22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CAR allows 2.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, Trey Benson has gone over 4.5 TGT 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (2.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.