Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tristan Wirfs Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tristan Wirfs has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 1.0 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Tristan Wirfs's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Hamstring Strain

Wirfs got hurt during a conditioning test and is currently considered day-to-day. Once healthy again, the 27-year-old will resume his role as the team's starting left tackle.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Warm overFireFactor 43/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.0 REC TD

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs ARI

Nov 30, 2025

18thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 52 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Tristan Wirfs has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.