New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough Completions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Shough has gone over 22.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 22.1 CMP · our line

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OutTyler Shough isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As a rookie, Shough appeared in 11 regular-season contests and went 5-4 as the Saints' starting QB after taking over for Spencer Rattler in November. In the process, he completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards, with 10 touchdowns and six picks, while adding 45 carries for 186 yards and three rushing TDs. This coming season, the 2025 second-rounder approaches training camp atop a signal-caller depth chart that still includes Rattler, as well as Zach Wilson and Hunter Dekkers. In addition to the Saints' investment in added weapons at the skill positions for Shough, the team looked to fortify its protection unit by signing veteran guard David Edwards and TE Noah Fant, who is underrated as a blocker, per Jackson. With continued growth in in his second campaign as a pro, Shough has a chance provide solid fantasy value in 2026 relative to his average draft position.

Verdict

vs 22.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency55neutral

Projection

23.1 CMP(×1.00 context)

L5 22.8 · L10 22.1 · med 22.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 16.6 · ceil 26.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	60%	6/10
	60%	6/10
	60%	6/10
22.5Current	50%	5/10
	40%	4/10
	30%	3/10
	30%	3/10

Last 10 games — CMP per game vs. line 22.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 22.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — @ ATL

Jan 4, 2026

18thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

ATL allows 19.4 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shough has gone over 22.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 18th-most CMP of 32 teams (19.4 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.