Buffalo Bills

Tyrell Shavers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyrell Shavers has gone over 3.5 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: San Diego State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.7 FS · our line

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OutTyrell Shavers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Knee - ACL Surgery
Est. return:: Aug 15, 2026

Shavers tore his ACL during the Bills' 27-24 win over the Jaguars in the 2025 wild-card round. Shavers played in all 17 regular-season games during the 2025 season, catching 15-of-23 targets for 245 yards and one touchdown. It remains to be seen where the 26-year-old fits into the 2026 Bills' offensive scheme, as Joshua Palmer is returning from an ankle issue, and the team drafted Skyler Bell in the fourth round of the 2026 draft.

Verdict

vs 3.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

6.1 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 7.2 · L10 5.7 · med 4.4

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.5 · ceil 5.7

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
3.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%3/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Last matchup — @ JAX

Jan 11, 2026

18thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

JAX allows 9.3 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 61 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Tyrell Shavers has gone over 3.5 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most FS of 32 teams (9.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.