Houston Texans

Woody Marks Carries

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Woody Marks has gone over 15.5 CAR in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 15.6 CAR · our line

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OutWoody Marks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As a rookie fourth-round pick in 2025, Marks led the Texans in rushing yards (703) but averaged just 3.6 yards per tote. Poor offensive line play was a factor in Marks' inability to churn out big gains on the ground, though Houston appears to have upgraded that group with the signings of veteran guard Wyatt Teller and offensive tackle Braden Smith and the selection of center/guard Keylan Rutledge in the first round of the draft. While the presence of Montgomery will likely limit Marks' touches on early downs, any improvement in his efficiency as a runner to go along with a heightened role on passing downs -- he shined as a pass catcher with a 24-208-3 receiving line as a rookie -- may be enough for Marks to build on his first-year production. The Texans are also looking to take advantage of Marks' shiftiness in space by deploying him on kickoff returns.

Verdict

vs 15.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency51neutral

Projection

17.5 CAR(×1.09 context)

L5 17.6 · L10 16.5 · med 17.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 10.4 · ceil 19.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2013 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Season13 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	69%	9/13
	69%	9/13
	54%	7/13
15.5Current	54%	7/13
	46%	6/13
	38%	5/13
	31%	4/13

Last 13 games — CAR per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away71%5/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%6/12Low

With a teammate out

How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

C.J. Stroud out+0.5 CAR when he sits

Without (3g)

16.0 CAR

67% over 15.5

With (10g)

15.5 CAR

50% over 15.5

David Montgomery out+4.1 CAR when he sits

Without (9g)

16.9 CAR

67% over 15.5

With (4g)

12.8 CAR

25% over 15.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 18, 2026

20thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

NE allows 10.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Woody Marks has gone over 15.5 CAR 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.