Houston Texans

Xavier Hutchinson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutXavier Hutchinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

In the season opener, Hutchinson finished second among the team's wide receivers in route share (69 percent) and target share (16.2 percent), catching three of six targets for 32 yards. He's struggled to draw targets over the years even when he gets considerable playing time, but this could be somewhat different because the team's WR depth looks thinner than in past years. Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel and Jared Wayne also figure to have roles against the Bengals on Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 89% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line89supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.19 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2014 games

14%over

2 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 4%–40%

Season14 games

14%over

2 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 4%–40%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	14%	2/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away13%1/8Medium

Days since last game

3+ days15%2/13Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 20, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CIN allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 14% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 14%.