Tennessee Titans

Xavier Restrepo Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Restrepo has gone over 1.5 REC in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Miami
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.0 REC · our line

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OutXavier Restrepo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Restrepo was with Tennessee throughout training camp and initially made the 53-man roster, but he was cut before the team's season opener. He'll now get a look on game day for the first time this season, as fellow wideout Carnell Tate (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday, and Calvin Ridley (hip) is questionable but expected to play. Restrepo saw action in two games as a rookie with the Titans last year, catching three of seven targets for 41 yards.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency100supports it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

1.7 REC(×0.86 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
1.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ CIN

Nov 1, 2026

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

CIN allows 2.9 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 21 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Xavier Restrepo has gone over 1.5 REC 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (2.9 per game). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.