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Montreal CanadiensIvan Demidov
#93 · RW · 6' 1" · 192 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIvan Demidov isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Fracture
- Est. return:
- Nov 14, 2026
Demidov has been on injured reserve since Oct. 6, and he initially received a return timetable of 2-4 weeks. He's now at the end of that estimate, and while it's encouraging to see him skating on his own, he's still in a walking boot, per Eric Engels of Sportsnet. Demidov appears likely to miss at least a few more games, but another step in his recovery will occur once he's officially cleared to practice with his teammates.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.4 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.9 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 1.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day0%0/3Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs UTAH
Nov 6, 2026
24thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
UTAH allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 89 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ivan Demidov has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 24th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.