Montreal Canadiens

Ivan Demidov Points

Stats updated: Oct 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ivan Demidov has gone over 0.5 PTS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPoints · season avg 0.4 PTS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutIvan Demidov isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Ankle Fracture
Est. return:: Nov 14, 2026

Demidov has been on injured reserve since Oct. 6, and he initially received a return timetable of 2-4 weeks. He's now at the end of that estimate, and while it's encouraging to see him skating on his own, he's still in a walking boot, per Eric Engels of Sportsnet. Demidov appears likely to miss at least a few more games, but another step in his recovery will occur once he's officially cleared to practice with his teammates.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PTSPoints

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.3 PTS(×0.98 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2011 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Season11 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	36%	4/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — PTS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

1 day0%0/3Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days75%3/4Low

Next matchup — vs UTAH

Nov 6, 2026

26thof 32 in PTS allowed to forwards

UTAH allows 0.4 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 89 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ivan Demidov has gone over 0.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 36% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 26th-most PTS of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.