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Edmonton OilersMatt Savoie
#22 · C · 5' 10" · 179 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: May 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.0 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatt Savoie isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Lower Body Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 24, 2026
By moving Savoie to LTIR, the Oilers will get some cap relief while he is sidelined, as their injuries have started to pile up. The 22-year-old forward logged all 82 regular-season games in his rookie campaign, generating 18 goals and 19 assists, including seven power-play points. Considering Savoie is expected to miss at least the first two weeks of the season, fantasy managers probably shouldn't be expecting him to significantly outperform those numbers in 2026-27.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
1.9 SOG(×0.88 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.7 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season39 games
51%over
20 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–66%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 32/39 | ||
| 1.5Current | 51% | 20/39 | |
| 36% | 14/39 | ||
| 23% | 9/39 | ||
| 8% | 3/39 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home52%11/21Medium
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day71%10/14Medium
2 days38%3/8Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
Next matchup — vs NYR
Nov 10, 2026
28thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
NYR allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 102 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matt Savoie has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 51% across the full season. NYR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 28th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 51%.