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Chicago SkyAzura Stevens
#30 · F · 6' 6" · 180 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UConn
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 12.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAzura Stevens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Steven is sidelined Thursday with a knee injury, ending her regular season. The veteran forward is under contract with the Sky for 2027, and she averaged 10.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in 2026.
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
11.1 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 8.4 · L10 12.2 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.6 · ceil 18.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
42%over
8 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–64%Season19 games
42%over
8 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 15/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 11.5Current | 42% | 8/19 | |
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 32% | 6/19 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away31%4/13Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day100%3/3Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days13%1/8Medium
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Skylar Diggins out · Right Knee-1.2 PTS when he sits
Without (11g)
11.9 PTS
45% over 11.5
With (8g)
13.1 PTS
38% over 11.5
Last matchup — @ CON
Aug 25, 2026
15thof 15 in PTS allowed to forwards
CON allows 8.9 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 80 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Azura Stevens has gone over 11.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. CON has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 15th-most PTS of 15 teams (8.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.