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Connecticut SunKennedy Burke
#25 · G · 6' 1" · 182 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Aug 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UCLA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 11.4 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKennedy Burke isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
With Connecticut eliminated from playoff contention, Burke is sitting out the remaining four games on the schedule with an eye toward next season. Her absence should allow Nell Angloma and Aaliyah Edwards to handle more playing time. Burke averaged a career-high 8.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest in 37 games this season.
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency32argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
13.9 PTS(×1.05 context)
L5 14.4 · L10 12.5 · med 12.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.6 · ceil 15.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 11.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days33%4/12Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brittney Griner out · Left Knee-1.6 PTS when he sits
Without (9g)
10.8 PTS
33% over 11.5
With (5g)
12.4 PTS
60% over 11.5
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 22, 2026
3rdof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
WSH allows 12.6 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 93 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kennedy Burke has gone over 11.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 43% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 3rd-most PTS of 15 teams (12.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.