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Notre Dame Fighting IrishCJ Carr
#13 · QB · 6' 2" · 215 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 240.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 237.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 12% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line12argues against it
Consistency75supports it
Projection
295.5 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 241.0 · L10 240.9 · med 237.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 224.4 · ceil 256.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 237.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 237.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs BC
Nov 14, 2026
173rdof 235 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BC allows 174.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, CJ Carr has gone over 237.5 PASS YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. BC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 173rd-most PASS YDS of 235 teams (174.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 35.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 260.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
BetMGM-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-115
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+38.2%
Our model puts the over at 88.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.