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Notre Dame Fighting IrishCJ Carr Completions
Stats updated: Nov 30, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
CJ Carr has gone over 18.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Completions · season avg 18.0 CMPSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 18.5 CMPCompletionsCool underFireFactor 24/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency76supports it
Projection
16.4 CMP(×0.93 context)
L5 17.0 · L10 18.0 · med 18.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 15.8 · ceil 20.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Last matchup — @ STAN
Nov 30, 2025
14thof 234 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
STAN allows 23.4 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, CJ Carr has gone over 18.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. STAN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most CMP of 234 teams (23.4 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More CJ Carr research
CJ Carr — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Carr Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Carr Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Carr Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.