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Miami HeatBam Adebayo
#13 · C-F · 6-9 · 255 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 14
- College
- Kentucky
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 23.3 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Bam Adebayo's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
While Adebayo may sacrifice some scoring volume, Antetokounmpo's ability to collapse defenses should create more efficient scoring opportunities, and the duo projects to form one of the league's premier defensive frontcourts. Adebayo nursed a back issue to end the 2025-26 season, but he should be a full go for training camp.
Verdict
vs 22.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
23.4 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 20.6 · L10 28.7 · med 23.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.2 · ceil 27.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season32 games
50%over
16 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–66%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 22/32 | ||
| 59% | 19/32 | ||
| 50% | 16/32 | ||
| 22.5Current | 50% | 16/32 | |
| 41% | 13/32 | ||
| 25% | 8/32 | ||
| 25% | 8/32 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%8/15Low
Away47%8/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day58%7/12Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — @ WAS
Apr 10, 2026
2ndof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
WAS allows 15.2 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 61 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bam Adebayo has gone over 22.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. WAS has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 2nd-most PTS of 30 teams (15.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.