Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bam Adebayo has gone over 46.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 14
College: Kentucky
Country: USA
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 45.6 FS

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Verdict

vs 46.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency44neutral

Projection

49.1 FS(×1.04 context)

L5 45.6 · L10 52.8 · med 48.1

Consistency

Variable

floor 34.1 · ceil 53.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season32 games

47%over

15 over · 17 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–64%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	59%	19/32
	56%	18/32
	56%	18/32
46.5Current	47%	15/32
	44%	14/32
	41%	13/32
	34%	11/32

Last 20 games — FS per game vs. line 46.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 46.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%6/15Medium

Away53%9/17Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day50%6/12Low

2 days50%2/4Low

3+ days46%6/13Low

Last matchup — @ WAS

Apr 10, 2026

4thof 30 in FS allowed to centers

WAS allows 34.6 FS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 61 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bam Adebayo has gone over 46.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. WAS has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 4th-most FS of 30 teams (34.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.