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Oklahoma City ThunderIsaiah Hartenstein
#55 · C-F · 7-0 · 250 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 2, Pick 43
- College
- Zalgiris
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 10.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
7.8 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 8.7 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 14.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season29 games
48%over
14 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–66%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 20/29 | ||
| 66% | 19/29 | ||
| 59% | 17/29 | ||
| 10.5Current | 48% | 14/29 | |
| 45% | 13/29 | ||
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 28% | 8/29 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%6/14Low
Away53%8/15Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day67%10/15Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days33%3/9Low
Last matchup — vs NYK
Mar 29, 2026
25thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
NYK allows 12.3 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 61 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isaiah Hartenstein has gone over 10.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 48% across the full season. NYK has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.