Oklahoma City Thunder

Isaiah Hartenstein Steals

Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isaiah Hartenstein has gone over 1.5 STL in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2017 · Rd 2, Pick 43
College: Zalgiris
Country: Germany
Experience: 8 seasons

Verdict

vs 1.5 STLSteals

Cool underFireFactor 48/100· model 72% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line72supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.2 STL(×0.90 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

20%over

4 over · 16 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–42%

Season29 games

31%over

9 over · 20 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–49%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	72%	21/29
1.5Current	31%	9/29
	7%	2/29
	7%	2/29
	0%	0/29

Last 20 games — STL per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home29%4/14Medium

Away33%5/15Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day27%4/15Medium

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days22%2/9Low

Last matchup — vs NYK

Mar 29, 2026

23rdof 30 in STL allowed to centers

NYK allows 0.7 STL per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 61 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Isaiah Hartenstein has gone over 1.5 STL 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 31% across the full season. NYK has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 23rd-most STL of 30 teams (0.7 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.