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Memphis GrizzliesJa Morant
#12 · G · 6-2 · 174 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Murray State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 21.5 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Ja Morant's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Sprain
Chris Haynes of NBA TV reported when the trade went down that the Trail Blazers had a Morant and Lillard backcourt pairing in mind, so it'll be interesting to see how the ball-handling responsibilities are divvied up in 2026-27 should they stick to that plan. Morant endured yet another injury-plagued campaign in 2025-26 with the Grizzlies, making just 20 appearances while shooting a career-low 41.0 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent from deep, and he's reached the 60-game mark just one time over his past five seasons. With plenty of questions surrounding his fit in his new digs, the dynamic 27-year-old point guard is shaping up as a difficult fantasy player to rank as a high-risk, high-reward gamble in the second half of drafts.
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
21.7 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 23.8 · L10 19.4 · med 17.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.0 · ceil 26.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 21.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
1 day17%1/6Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days100%3/3Low
Last matchup — vs ATL
Jan 21, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ATL allows 14.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 207 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ja Morant has gone over 21.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 46% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.