Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant Turnovers

Stats updated: Jan 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ja Morant has gone over 4.5 TOV in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 2
College: Murray State
Country: USA
Experience: 7 seasons

Top reads — this player & matchup

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Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.

Line

PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 4.2 TOV · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Ja Morant's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Elbow Sprain

Chris Haynes of NBA TV reported when the trade went down that the Trail Blazers had a Morant and Lillard backcourt pairing in mind, so it'll be interesting to see how the ball-handling responsibilities are divvied up in 2026-27 should they stick to that plan. Morant endured yet another injury-plagued campaign in 2025-26 with the Grizzlies, making just 20 appearances while shooting a career-low 41.0 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent from deep, and he's reached the 60-game mark just one time over his past five seasons. With plenty of questions surrounding his fit in his new digs, the dynamic 27-year-old point guard is shaping up as a difficult fantasy player to rank as a high-risk, high-reward gamble in the second half of drafts.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency19argues against it

Projection

4.1 TOV(×0.98 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 4.4 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.4 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	12/13
	77%	10/13
	54%	7/13
4.5Current	46%	6/13
	31%	4/13
	15%	2/13
	8%	1/13

Last 13 games — TOV per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

1 day67%4/6Low

2 days67%2/3Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

Last matchup — vs ATL

Jan 21, 2026

1stof 30 in TOV allowed to guards

ATL allows 1.9 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 207 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ja Morant has gone over 4.5 TOV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 1st-most TOV of 30 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.