Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams Steals

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Williams has gone over 2.5 STL in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 12
College: Santa Clara
Country: USA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksSteals · season avg 1.2 STL · PrizePicks line

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PrizePicks payout options — Steals (STL)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

OutJalen Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Leg Fracture
Est. return:: Mar 2, 2027

Williams suffered the injury during Sunday's meeting with the Clippers and was taken off the court on a stretcher. It's unknown when the 25-year-old will be cleared to return, though the Thunder will presumably be overly cautious moving forward. Williams, who signed a five-year extension in July of 2025, has had a productive career, averaging 17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals over 30.9 minutes per contest. However, after playing at least 69 regular-season games in his first three years in the league, he has appeared in just 36 in the last two seasons combined. With the Thunder having one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, the team may look for more minutes from Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams, and Kenrich Williams for the remainder of the 2026-27 campaign.

Verdict

vs 2.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 6% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line10argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

1.1 STL(×0.91 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Season10 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 10 games — STL per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/6Medium

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

1 day0%0/5Medium

2 days0%0/1Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

Next matchup — @ MEM

Nov 7, 2026

19thof 30 in STL allowed to guards

MEM allows 1.0 STL per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 23 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Williams has gone over 2.5 STL 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. MEM has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 19th-most STL of 30 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

4 books @ 1.5 STL

No-vig fair (over): 36.7%
No-vig fair (under): 63.3%

Best Over

Hard Rock Bet+160

-4.5% EV

Best Under

DraftKings-200

-5.1% EV

Model vs market (over)-30.9%

Our model puts the over at 5.8% vs the market's no-vig 36.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Steals (STL)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 STL). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.