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Oklahoma City ThunderJalen Williams
#8 · G-F · 6-5 · 211 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 12
- College
- Santa Clara
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 16.9 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Leg Fracture
- Est. return:
- Mar 2, 2027
Williams suffered the injury during Sunday's meeting with the Clippers and was taken off the court on a stretcher. It's unknown when the 25-year-old will be cleared to return, though the Thunder will presumably be overly cautious moving forward. Williams, who signed a five-year extension in July of 2025, has had a productive career, averaging 17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals over 30.9 minutes per contest. However, after playing at least 69 regular-season games in his first three years in the league, he has appeared in just 36 in the last two seasons combined. With the Thunder having one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, the team may look for more minutes from Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams, and Kenrich Williams for the remainder of the 2026-27 campaign.
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency41neutral
Projection
15.7 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 16.2 · L10 16.9 · med 18.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.2 · ceil 21.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 18.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/3Low
Last matchup — vs LAC
Oct 25, 2026
2ndof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
LAC allows 15.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Williams has gone over 18.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 2nd-most PTS of 30 teams (15.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.