Utah Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. 3-Pointers Made

Stats updated: Feb 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 2.5 3PM in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
College: Michigan State
Country: USA
Experience: 8 seasons

Top reads — this player & matchup

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Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.

Line

PrizePicks3-Pointers Made · season avg 2.1 3PM · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Jaren Jackson Jr.'s status before the game.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery

Jackson was traded from Memphis to Utah in February, though he appeared in only three regular-season games for the Jazz before undergoing surgery due to a growth in his left knee. The 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year will look to make his presence felt on that end of the floor and anchor a now Kessler-less Jazz frontcourt. Jackson's two-way production will be crucial for a Utah team that's looking to return to playoff contention, and he hasn't averaged fewer than 18.6 points per game since the 2021-22 campaign, when he averaged 16.3 points per tilt for the Grizzlies.

Verdict

vs 2.5 3PM3-Pointers Made

Cool underFireFactor 46/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.3 3PM(×1.00 context)

L5 2.4 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

25%over

5 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%

Season32 games

28%over

9 over · 23 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–45%

Alternate lines — 3-Pointers Made (3PM)

3PM over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate 3PM line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	28/32
	75%	24/32
2.5Current	28%	9/32
	16%	5/32
	6%	2/32
	0%	0/32

Last 20 games — 3PM per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 3PM by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%5/13Low

Away21%4/19Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day21%3/14Medium

2 days22%2/9Low

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs MIN

Feb 2, 2026

21stof 30 in 3PM allowed to forwards

MIN allows 1.5 3PM per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 166 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 2.5 3PM 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 28% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most 3PM of 30 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game 3PM have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

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Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.