Utah Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. 3-Pointers Made

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 1.5 3PM in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
College: Michigan State
Country: USA
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicks3-Pointers Made · season avg 1.9 3PM · our line

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OutJaren Jackson Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee Not Specified
Est. return:: Dec 14, 2026

Jackson sustained the injury early in Monday's loss to Memphis, and he's now expected to miss at least a month and a half of action. The star big man's absence creates a major void in the Utah lineup, one that is likely to be filled by a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes (shoulder), Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba. The Jazz could also shift Lauri Markkanen (wrist), when healthy, to the center spot at times, perhaps allowing Ace Bailey to spend more time at power forward.

Verdict

vs 1.5 3PM3-Pointers Made

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency17argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

1.5 3PM(×0.82 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 2.1 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2014 games

71%over

10 over · 4 under

Medium confidence95% CI 45%–88%

Season14 games

71%over

10 over · 4 under

Medium confidence95% CI 45%–88%

Alternate lines — 3-Pointers Made (3PM)

3PM over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate 3PM line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	93%	13/14
1.5Current	71%	10/14
	21%	3/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — 3PM per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 3PM by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away86%6/7Low

Days since last game

1 day83%5/6Low

2 days50%2/4Low

3+ days100%3/3Low

Next matchup — @ DAL

Nov 7, 2026

25thof 30 in 3PM allowed to forwards

DAL allows 1.1 3PM per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 26 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 1.5 3PM 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 71% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most 3PM of 30 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game 3PM have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.