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Utah JazzJaren Jackson Jr.
#20 · F-C · 6-10 · 242 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
- College
- Michigan State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 21.1 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaren Jackson Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Dec 14, 2026
Jackson sustained the injury early in Monday's loss to Memphis, and he's now expected to miss at least a month and a half of action. The star big man's absence creates a major void in the Utah lineup, one that is likely to be filled by a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes (shoulder), Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba. The Jazz could also shift Lauri Markkanen (wrist), when healthy, to the center spot at times, perhaps allowing Ace Bailey to spend more time at power forward.
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 30% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line30argues against it
Consistency59neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
18.6 PTS(×0.89 context)
L5 20.6 · L10 21.8 · med 22.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.6 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 21.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
1 day67%4/6Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Lauri Markkanen out · Right Wrist Sprain+1.9 PTS when he sits
Without (11g)
21.5 PTS
55% over 21.5
With (3g)
19.7 PTS
33% over 21.5
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 9, 2026
25thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIN allows 11.1 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 27 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 21.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 30 teams (11.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.