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Los Angeles LakersJaxson Hayes
#11 · C-F · 7-0 · 220 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Apr 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 8
- College
- Texas
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 11.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
14.2 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 12.4 · med 10.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 16.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season21 games
48%over
10 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–68%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 57% | 12/21 | ||
| 9.5Current | 48% | 10/21 | |
| 43% | 9/21 | ||
| 38% | 8/21 | ||
| 29% | 6/21 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away55%6/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day80%4/5Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days38%5/13Low
Last matchup — @ DAL
Apr 5, 2026
5thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
DAL allows 14.3 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 72 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaxson Hayes has gone over 9.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 48% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 5th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.