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Golden State WarriorsJimmy Butler III
#10 · F · 6-6 · 230 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Jan 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2011 · Rd 1, Pick 30
- College
- Marquette
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 16 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 22.2 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJimmy Butler III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Jan 2, 2027
Butler, who underwent surgery after suffering the injury Jan. 19, has progressed to individual court work but still has several rehabilitation milestones to clear. His next step involves landing comfortably after a game-speed jump. Coach Steve Kerr is hopeful Butler can rejoin Golden State for the latter portion of the season, though no official return date has been announced. The 37-year-old forward remains a significant part of the Warriors' plans and could provide a substantial boost during the second half of the campaign.
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency59neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
25.4 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 24.4 · L10 22.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 18.2 · ceil 27.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season27 games
59%over
16 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–75%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 22/27 | ||
| 78% | 21/27 | ||
| 70% | 19/27 | ||
| 20.5Current | 59% | 16/27 | |
| 37% | 10/27 | ||
| 37% | 10/27 | ||
| 33% | 9/27 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away57%8/14Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day64%7/11Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days56%5/9Low
Next matchup — vs NOP
Nov 10, 2026
6thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NOP allows 13.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 27 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jimmy Butler III has gone over 20.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 59% across the full season. NOP has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.