Golden State Warriors

Jimmy Butler III Steals

Stats updated: Jan 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jimmy Butler III has gone over 1.5 STL in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2011 · Rd 1, Pick 30
College: Marquette
Country: USA
Experience: 16 seasons

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 1.6 STL · our line

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OutJimmy Butler III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee Surgery
Est. return:: Jan 2, 2027

Butler, who underwent surgery after suffering the injury Jan. 19, has progressed to individual court work but still has several rehabilitation milestones to clear. His next step involves landing comfortably after a game-speed jump. Coach Steve Kerr is hopeful Butler can rejoin Golden State for the latter portion of the season, though no official return date has been announced. The 37-year-old forward remains a significant part of the Warriors' plans and could provide a substantial boost during the second half of the campaign.

Verdict

vs 1.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)47neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

1.8 STL(×0.97 context)

L5 2.4 · L10 1.5 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season27 games

48%over

13 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–66%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	81%	22/27
1.5Current	48%	13/27
	30%	8/27
	4%	1/27
	0%	0/27

Last 20 games — STL per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home46%6/13Low

Away50%7/14Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low

1 day64%7/11Low

2 days50%2/4Low

3+ days44%4/9Low

Next matchup — vs MIA

Nov 6, 2026

5thof 30 in STL allowed to forwards

MIA allows 1.1 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jimmy Butler III has gone over 1.5 STL 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 5th-most STL of 30 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.