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New England PatriotsA.J. Brown Receptions
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
A.J. Brown has gone over 5.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutA.J. Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Per Daniels, the wideout finished the session with with four catches, as his chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye continues to grow. Given that he was able to work through his thumb issue Monday, Brown's practice participation isn't expected to be affected going forward. The Patriots' preseason opener is Aug. 13 against the Colts, and it remains to be seen whether key starters like Brown will see action in the contest.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
6.3 REC(×1.09 context)
L5 6.6 · L10 6.3 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.4 · ceil 7.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 5.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%7/12Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out+1.6 REC when he sits
Without (7g)
6.6 REC
71% over 5.5
With (6g)
5.0 REC
33% over 5.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out+1.6 REC when he sits
Without (7g)
6.6 REC
71% over 5.5
With (6g)
5.0 REC
33% over 5.5
Last matchup — vs SF
Jan 11, 2026
4thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
SF allows 3.8 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 59 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, A.J. Brown has gone over 5.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More A.J. Brown research
A.J. Brown — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Brown Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Brown Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Brown Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.