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New England PatriotsA.J. Brown Targets
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
A.J. Brown has gone over 9.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 9.4 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutA.J. Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Sprain
- Est. return:
- Nov 1, 2026
The Patriots deactivated Brown just three days after he sustained the injury in the third quarter of Wednesday's 13-10 loss to the Seahawks. Though recovery timelines for high-ankle sprains often range from 4-to-6 weeks, the Patriots quickly determined that Brown's injury is "a little more serious," which likely takes a return from IR in Week 6 when first eligible off the table. While their No. 1 wideout is sidelined until early November, the Patriots will have to lean more heavily on Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams as their primary receivers.
Verdict
vs 9.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency63supports it
Projection
10.0 TGT(×1.09 context)
L5 10.2 · L10 9.5 · med 9.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 7.4 · ceil 11.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 9.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 8% | 1/13 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
26thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 4.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, A.J. Brown has gone over 9.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More A.J. Brown research
A.J. Brown — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Brown Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Brown Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Brown Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.