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Pittsburgh SteelersAaron Rodgers
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 223 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 23 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 233.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jaylen Warren spearheaded the Steelers' attack with 143 rushing yards and a touchdown, and backfield mate Rico Dowdle added 56 yards and a score of his own. When combined with a highly effective effort by Pittsburgh's defense, there wasn't much production required of Rodgers and the air attack after much busier games leading into Sunday. Rodgers finished with season-low figures in completions, pass attempts, completion percentage and passing yards while failing to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 2, but he's highly likely to revert to his prior pass-heavy ways in a Week 10 road showdown against the Bengals on Sunday night, Nov. 15, following a Week 8 bye.
Verdict
vs 228.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency69supports it
Projection
219.0 PASS YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 234.2 · L10 233.9 · med 228.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 197.0 · ceil 276.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 228.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 228.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — vs CLE
Nov 1, 2026
22ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CLE allows 214.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 228.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (214.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 42.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.